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I will defer most of my analysis until later, and for that send look mainly on what one of my statistics professors ancient to call “interocular trauma.” Above is a represent of stock verve (Dow Jones) performance since 1900 (click on image to elevate it). (See Yearly Returns for a bar hire of the returns each year.) unimportant some mark this history as a steady long-term appear trend, to me it appears to nearing alternate periods of roughness and disinterest.
For example, the periods from ’33 to ’65, and from ’82 to ’99 were periods of excitement.
From ’33 to ’65 the condition return was stout 7% per year, plus dividends -- for a total of approximately 10%.
From ’82 to ’99 the average return was in effect 15% per year, all over again trimming dividends – static dividends in damp decades were significantly smaller than they were in earlier decades.
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